Cabinet - Thursday 3 April 2025, 6:00pm - Cotswold District Council Webcasting

Cabinet
Thursday, 3rd April 2025 at 6:00pm 

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  1. Slide 3
  2. Slide 1
  3. Councillor Joe Harris
  4. Slide 2
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  1. Slide 4
  2. Councillor Claire Bloomer
  3. Slide 5
  4. Slide 6
  5. Slide 7
  6. Councillor Joe Harris
  7. Slide 8
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  1. Councillor Mike Evemy
  2. Councillor Juliet Layton
  3. Councillor Joe Harris
  4. 03. Minutes if the meeting held 10 March 25 - APPROVE
    Status: In progress
  5. 03. Minutes if the meeting held 10 March 25 - APPROVE
    Status: Ended
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  1. Councillor Mike Evemy
  2. Slide 9
  3. Slide 10
  4. Slide 11
  5. David Stanley, Deputy CEO
  6. Slide 12
  7. Councillor Joe Harris
  8. Councillor Paul Hodgkinson
  9. Slide 13
  10. David Stanley, Deputy CEO
  11. Slide 14
  12. Slide 15
  13. Slide 16
  14. Slide 17
  15. Slide 18
  16. Slide 19
  17. Councillor Joe Harris
  18. 9 Financial performance Q3 report 24/25 - Approve recommendations 2-3
    Status: In progress
  19. 9 Financial performance Q3 report 24/25 - Approve recommendations 2-3
    Status: Ended
  20. Webcast Finished
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If you would all rise.
Hello, everybody.
Councillor Joe Harris - 0:00:07
Welcome to April's Cabinet.

1 Apologies

Quite a light agenda, so hopefully, we'll get through this.
We can go and enjoy the evening.
Sunshine.
I think it's still sunny.
The camera's not working properly.
Yeah.
I appear to be David Stanley on the camera.
A bit of a technical difficulty.
We're just going to take two minutes just to sort it out.
Councillor Claire Bloomer - 0:00:43
Councillor Joe Harris - 0:00:53
recital
first item which is apologies for the last meeting we have apologies from
councillor Tristan Wilkinson and we also have apologies from councillor Mike
McEwen. Does anybody have any declarations of interest? No? Okay we then

2 Declarations of Interest

3 Minutes

move to the minutes of the last meeting and vote to approve those. Does anybody
Do we have any comments or questions on those minutes before we vote to sign them off?
Mike?
Thank you.
Joe?
Oh, it's...
Now I do funny things.
Councillor Mike Evemy - 0:01:42
It's coming to me.
So that's good.
No, I think just to note that I think of the...
There were four of us at the last meeting and only two of us are here at this meeting.
So I'm going to propose the minutes.
I think Juliette's going to second. I'm happy to second the minutes.
Councillor Juliet Layton - 0:02:01
Right okay then in that case
Councillor Joe Harris - 0:02:03
we'll move to the vote on those and bear in mind only Juliette and Mike can vote on them.
Yellow. Lovely. That is two, four and three abstentions. Okay move then to the next item
which is leaders announcements, only have one,
and that is to congratulate our chief executive, Rob Weaver,

4 Leader's Announcements

on his nomination for Chief Executive of the Year
in the Municipal Journal Awards.
Whether you win or lose, Rob, it's a good night out.
So in any event, you have a good time.
But no, I think we'd all like to put on record
our thanks for all of your hard work
over the past four years?
Four years now, cranky as the time flies.
So no, big congratulations from us.
We're very pleased for you.
Okay, then.
We'll move now to public questions.

5 Public Questions

The public gallery is empty, so we'll take that.
No member questions at item six.

7 Schedule of Decisions taken by the Leader of the Council and/or Individual Cabinet Members

Item seven, then, is just noting schedules of decisions taken by the leader of the council or individual cabinet members.
If you're watching at home, you can look in the agenda and have a look at those.
Two from the Cabinet Member for Finance and the Cabinet Member for Health, Culture and
Visitor Experience.
As I said, those are just for noting.

8 Issue(s) Arising from Overview and Scrutiny and/or Audit and Governance

Move to Item 8, issues arising from overview and discretion in your Order in Governance.
I look to Nicky, do we have anything?
We don't have anything?
Fine.
No issues arising.
Brilliant.

9 Financial Performance Report 2024-25 Quarter Three

We move then to our final item, which is Financial Performance Report, Quarter 3.
And Councillor Mike Eberly, the Deputy Leader and Cabinet Member for Finance, is going to
talk us through this.
Mike, over to you.
Thank you.
Councillor Mike Evemy - 0:03:54
having just knocked off my name plate. Thank you, Joe. So yeah, this is the
quarter three report. Obviously quarter three, the full year came to an end just
earlier on this week, on Monday 31st of March. So this is running up for the
periods October to December of last year and really the report, draw your
attention to the executive summary really in section 2 because it's then
looking very much at the out turn forecast for the year which is where I
think we really need to focus. The good news is that there is an improvement in
the amount that we will be hoping to put into our financial resilience reserves
to support our ongoing budgetary challenges and you can see that as part
of the resolution. Resolution 2 is approving the in principle the transfer
of the improved surplus which is now sitting at 400 and forecasting to sit at
four hundred and thirty five thousand pounds to the financial resilience
reserve for this year. So that's there and you can see where that's
all shown there in table ES1 and in the subsequent tables you can see the
various reconciliation of the variances and over there at a glance a little bit further
on.
So, I won't go into any detail because I'm sure members will have had the opportunity
to have a look at that.
And clearly anybody who's watching the meeting online will be able to read those papers too.
Second part of the report is the capital out term and where we are with that.
So OB in table ES3, section 210, that first column there,
OB is the original budget.
And I think the next column is latest just approved budget.
So you can see that actually we're forecasting that we are
going to, the outcome forecast is very close to the latest
approved budget.
And you can see the variances there.
It's worth noting there's an increase in order to be able to fund more disabled facility
adaptations of 238 ,000.
So that's good news.
That's more people getting help to adjust their home so they can live an easier life
or live more suitably in the accommodation that they own or rent without having to move.
So that's obviously really valuable work that we support through the Disabled Facilities
Grants.
And then pretty much that I think is what I wanted to highlight to colleagues.
So bringing us back to the resolutions that we've got on the recommendations.
So we're asking to review and note the financial position as it's set out in the report, to
approve the principle to transfer the surplus, as I talked about, the 435 ,000, and to approve
the revised capital program of 7 .550 million including the additional 238 ,000 on the disabled
facilities grants and noting that that's following additional allocation from Gloucestershire
County Council. Stop there and obviously let the deputy chief executive has anything to
add that he wishes to bring to our attention that I haven't covered off.
David Stanley, Deputy CEO - 0:07:34
I don't have anything to add in terms of the report other than Section 3 is already out
of date because the inflation figures that came out a week or so ago were 0 .2 % better
than is indicated in there, but events are moving at some pace in the external economic
environment, with the imposition of a number of tariffs from the US that may have an impact
on the wider economy and prospects for some of our Treasury management investments over
the coming 12 months.
This is a backward -looking report, and clearly those tariffs were imposed after the end of
the financial year, so it won't affect this year's, oh, 2425's financial performance.
The report was considered by overview and scrutiny earlier in the week.
There was a number of questions there.
But I think we're happy to take questions that you may have on the detail in the report.
Any questions?
Paul?
Councillor Joe Harris - 0:08:26
Councillor Paul Hodgkinson - 0:08:30
Well, for David, I expect, although Mike may want to comment, in terms of what you're saying
about inflation, obviously we've had the Trump tariffs last night.
Does that mean you think that inflation rate will be a bit more than you anticipated before?
And also, as a result of that, interest rates therefore might be a bit more than you expected.
I don't want to put words in your mouth.
I'm just trying to see whether that's, have I got that right.
David Stanley, Deputy CEO - 0:08:58
So in terms of the preparation I did for overview and scrutiny, I looked at where PW or B rates
are, which is the Public Works Loans Board, which is where, if the council undertook borrowing,
what that cost of that would be.
That's not to say the council is going to undertake borrowing, but it gives you a sense
of where that cost is sitting.
So a 50 -year annuity loan, which is a bit like a mortgage,
always paying a bit of interest at the start,
well, a lot of interest at the start and a bit of principal
at the start and then it reverses by the time you get
to the end, was 5 .96%.
A 10 -year was just over 5%.
So the cost of borrowing is relatively high compared
to the Bank of England base rate,
which is currently 4 .75%.
Arling close to the Council's Treasury advisors have maintained their forecast for the year,
which is they would expect to see further 0 .25 % reductions in the Bank of England base
rate at the quarterly MPC report stage.
So there's a number of MPC meetings.
Each quarter they produce a report that says how they're doing, and that's when they would
expect to see that.
So they would expect to see by the end of the calendar year,
2025, a low of 3 .75%.
In terms of inflation, I think the increase to 3 % on CPI and
then the subsequent month where it's decreased to 2 .8%,
the view is that with April changes and increases in the
number of utility bills, the energy price cap,
they would expect to see inflation continue to rise
above the Bank of England's target,
peaking probably just short of 4 % is what I've heard.
The impact from President Trump's tariffs has yet to be
factored in because that was the unknown at the time
that forecast was done.
So there is some inflationary risk for the
forthcoming financial year.
We have provided the pay award inflation at 3 % with
a further amount set aside in the contingency budget
to cover off that inflationary risk.
But what we have seen, I suppose, is a combination
of volatile inflation rates where they dropped,
they started to come back up, and will continue to go up,
but quite sticky interest rates.
So we've got a prudent estimate in next year's budget.
We've seen in terms of the Q3 forecast for Treasury
management an improved position because of the
stickiness of those interest rates coming down.
And we have, through the way we've budgeted, been able to absorb the pay award with an
underspend against that provision.
So we did provide for quite a significant amount of pay inflation in the budget that
this report is looking at, and that hasn't come through.
That was settled at a lower level, and we've adjusted that out over the future of the MTFS.
Lovely.
Thank you very much.
Any more from you, more?
Nope.
Mike, anything to add before we move to the vote?
Councillor Joe Harris - 0:11:58
I will second you in that case then.
So we've got two resolutions that we're voting on and then the other is not reviewing and
noting.
So if we can go to the vote then, please.
Excellent.
That is unanimous.
And with that, that concludes the meeting.
Thank you for coming and I'll see you all next month.
Thanks.

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